Title: In the danger zone! Regulatory uncertainty and voluntary bank capital surpluses Speaker: Aakriti Mathur, Ph.D. Candidate, The Graduate Institute, Geneva Abstract: Banks voluntarily hold substantially more capital than required by regulators. Understanding why is important for forecasting the extent to which banks would use this surplus to support lending in a crisis, and for calibrating macro-prudential policy. This paper studies the role of uncertainty about the requirements themselves, which could heighten any precautionary motive to avoid accidental breach of minimum requirements.…