Dear All,

The Department of Economics & ISAAC Centre for Public Policy invites you for the Special Seminar on Tuesday, October 15th, 2024.

Time: 1:40 PM to 2:50 PM

Venue: AC04-LR-301

Speaker: Laurence M. Ball

Title: "U.S. Inflation Since the Pandemic"

Abstract: This work seeks to explain the behavior of US inflation since 2020. The starting point is a decomposition of headline inflation into core inflation, as measured by the weighted median of industry inflation rates, and deviations from core (“headline inflation shocks”). Over 2021-2022, core inflation rose sharply as a result of three factors: a modest rise in long-term inflation expectations; a very tight labor market, as indicated by a high ratio of job openings to unemployment; and pass-through from headline inflation shocks to core. The headline shocks, which also contributed directly to headline inflation, arose in industries such as energy and used cars. Since late 2022, core and headline inflation have fallen most of the way back to their pre-pandemic levels because all three factors behind the rise in inflation have reversed.

We look forward to having you with us.

–

Regards

Department of Economics

Ashoka University

Web: www.ashoka.edu.in