Early Environment and Long-Term Development

A large body of research shows that early-life nutrition and environments are critical for child development, with lasting consequences over the life course. Work by James Heckman and co-authors highlights that the earliest years are a sensitive period, when investments in nutrition, health, and stimulation shape both cognitive and non-cognitive skills in ways that are hard to reverse later (Heckman, 2006; Cunha & Heckman, 2007). Evidence from long-running cohorts in a developing country context shows that early undernutrition reduces schooling and earnings decades later (Hoddinott et al., 2008; Alderman et al., 2006). A growing literature shows that health in the fetal period, infancy, and early childhood affects long-term outcomes (Currie and Vogl 2013).

A crucial part of this story is how early-life environments shape both cognitive skills (like memory, language, and problem-solving) and non-cognitive skills (such as motivation, attention, and self-control). Poor nutrition, stress, and missed schooling in early childhood can slow brain development and weaken these foundational abilities (Grantham-McGregor et al., 2007; Heckman, 2013). These early deficits often persist, affecting educational attainment, income, and health in adulthood (Currie, 2005; Almond, 2006).

Heckman et.al. (2008) studies a prominent early childhood program shows that its benefits come largely from improvements in social and personality skills, along with reductions in problematic behaviour. These changes help explain long-term gains in crime reduction, employment, and health outcomes. Even a few hours of preschool at ages three and four, with a curriculum emphasizing social competence, planning, and organization, can have lasting positive effects. This underscores the importance of early skill development in shaping life trajectories and guiding effective poverty-alleviation policies.

Climate shocks pose a serious threat to this early foundation. Currie and Vogl (2013) argues how these early-life shocks are often more prevalent in developing country context with poor insurance mechanisms. By disrupting agricultural production, they directly affect household livelihoods and incomes, with long-term consequences for human capital formation (Dercon, 2004). When incomes fall, families often cut back on essential investments in children—especially nutrition, schooling, and healthcare (Alderman, 2006).

Children tend to bear a disproportionate share of these shocks. In bad years, they may be pulled out of school to cope with income losses or to reduce household expenses. Older children may be drawn into farm or household labour to support family needs. But the story is more nuanced: periods of positive agricultural shocks can also lead to worse schooling outcomes, especially where child labour norms prevail. When farm productivity rises, the demand for labour increases, raising the opportunity cost of schooling and pulling children—especially in rural settings—out of classrooms and into work (Dasgupta & Karandikar, forthcoming; Shah & Steinberg, 2017). This creates a double bind: both negative shocks (through income loss) and positive shocks (through higher labour demand) can disrupt schooling, albeit through different channels.

Importantly, these early disruptions don’t just fade away—they tend to reinforce themselves over time. Two key mechanisms are at play. Self-productivity means that early skills make it easier to acquire new skills later. Dynamic complementarity means that early investments increase the returns to later ones. A strong start makes future opportunities more valuable, while a weak start makes it harder to catch up—so early shocks can have effects that grow over time (Cunha & Heckman, 2007; Heckman, 2013).

These effects can extend across generations. Early-life shocks not only shape an individual’s outcomes but can also influence the health and human capital of their children, demonstrating intergenerational persistence of disadvantage. For example, in urban China, maternal completion of senior secondary school increases the probability of children attending senior secondary school by 80%, while fathers’ education also has positive effects (Zhou & Dasgupta, 2017).

Taken together, this highlights a crucial point: climate shocks affect children not just through immediate hardship, but by altering the trajectory of skill formation itself. Because early disadvantages compound—and can even spill across generations—protecting children during these critical years is essential for long-run development.