Access to rural road infrastructure and fertility in India

Expanding access to public infrastructure can drive economic development through various pathways. For example, previous research has shown that better road connectivity can increase employment, improve livelihoods, expand public and private transport, and reduce poverty. Higher employment rates, especially among women, could raise the opportunity cost of having a child, encouraging households to have fewer children.

However, the overall impact of road-building programs on demographic transition is theoretically unclear. Demographic transition refers to the shift from high birth and death rates to low birth and death rates as a country or region develops. Improved infrastructure could lead to economic growth and higher household incomes, making childcare more affordable and potentially prompting families to have more children. Conversely, as returns to human capital goes up, households may prefer to have fewer children where they invest more on each child. There is evidence from both developed and developing countries that fertility rates decline during economic downturns and rise during periods of economic growth.
Therefore, it is not obvious how fertility would respond to better road infrastructure, as the outcomes depend on the relative influence of these mechanisms. Thus, the overall effect on the rate of demographic transition remains an open empirical question.

Aparajita Dasgupta, Associate Professor of Economics at Ashoka University, and her team studied how road access impacts fertility decisions and investments in child health. Their objective was to identify how improvements in local road connectivity affect fertility. To evaluate how fertility changes in response to the availability of paved roads, they analyzed variations in road access in India, utilizing data on access to the Pradhan Mantri Gram Sadak Yojana (PMGSY) both over time within districts and between districts.
Launched in 2000, the PMGSY is a large-scale road construction program aimed at providing paved roads to previously unconnected habitations in Indian villages, prioritising those above specific population thresholds. Dr. Dasgupta and her team specifically examined the fraction of villages in any given region that were above the relevant population cutoff at the baseline, using this as an instrument for actual road construction. They combined this measure with extensive administrative data to explore the effects of rural roads on demographic transition and the mechanisms involved.

The study revealed that increased access to paved roads at the district level reduces fertility rates, enhances investments in children, and decreases infant mortality. By examining the underlying mechanisms, the researchers found that local roads improved access to healthcare facilities, leading to higher immunization rates and further lowering infant mortality. Interestingly, the study identified improved access to healthcare facilities as the primary driver behind reduced fertility rates, rather than changes in female employment. While it might be expected that rural roads could create employment opportunities for women, thus reducing the demand for children, road connectivity was found to widen the gender gap in employment. However, it also allowed mothers more time, if not resources, for childcare.

Additionally, the study found that contraceptive use remained unchanged, despite historically being a dominant factor through which other infrastructure projects, such as electrification and access to televisions, have influenced fertility rates.

Overall, the evidence indicates that rural roads play a significant role in accelerating demographic transition by impacting fertility and infant mortality rates. Beyond enhancing healthcare demand, the study suggests that rural roads also improve households’ access to formal healthcare services, thereby addressing supply-side constraints in delivering health inputs to children in remote areas.

Edited by Dr Yukti Arora and Ms Kangna Verma (Academic Communications, Research and Development Office, Ashoka University)

Reference article:

“Road Access, Fertility, and Child Health in Rural India.” Population and Development Review (2024).
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/padr.12604

Authors: Aparajita Dasgupta (Associate Professor, Economics, Ashoka University)
[link to her research page]
Anahita Karandikar (PhD student at The University of British Columbia)
Devvrat Raghav (2023 McNamara Fellow at the World Bank)